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| Exponential Decay and the Stock Market | ||
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I know that the past few days have seen the stock market have huge drops in prices. The big problem that we are encountering is whenever analysts mention stock prices dropping 3% one day and 5% the next, a lot of people will assume that a stock has dropped 8%. What a lot of people are not considering however is the effect of exponential decay. Exponential decay is when a quantity decreases at a rate proportional to it's value. Lets say in the above example that a stock sits at a price of $100. If that stock declines 3% on the first day, and 5% on the second day, the formula would be calculated for the first day as: $100 - 3% = $97 To then calculate the drop for the second day in a row, we would then continue with: $97 - 5% = $92.15 If you calculated this as a straight 8% loss, your total would amount to an even $92. While this may seem trivial at the moment, if you had several hundred shares of this stock that dropped for a number of days, you could very easily see where the difference would matter, as the real drop of the stocks would only be at 7.85%. |
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